Economic Base Analysis - Investment Focused Strategy
Collingwood 2000/2005

Shift Share Analysis

A Shift/Share Analysis determines which industries in Collingwood are growing and which are declining in relative terms. The analysis contains three sets of calculations attributing portions of the “net change in employment” during the study period to the following factors:

-- Reference Area Growth Effect (RA) – that portion of the net change in employment that can be attributed to the overall growth or decline of the provincial economy. This adjusts the analysis for the business cycle in the province.

-- Industrial Mix Effect (IM) – that portion of the net change in employment attributable to the growth or decline of the individual industry sector. This acknowledges the difference between “sunrise” and “sunset” industries in the local economy.

-- Differential Shift Effect (DSE) – the differential attributable to local factors compared to the reference area.

For our purposes the Differential Shift Effect (DSE) is the most important measurement (see figure 4). It indicates whether the industry is growing faster in Collingwood than it is across the rest of the province or whether it is losing ground relative to the industry’s performance elsewhere.

Source: Calculations Based on Business Pattern Data 2004

Most sectors in Collingwood are outperforming provincial norms. Note the growth of “Knowledge-Based Services” in Collingwood which in Collingwood is outpacing the provincial growth rate.

The following tables summarize the growing and declining sectors in Collingwood’s economy.

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